A four minute read. JONATHAN NEALE writes: I’ve been thinking about elections and taxing the rich. And I’ve been thinking about Brazil, Germany, Trump, the Burnham bounce – and climate change. Let me explain.

My starting point is that people vote their real lives. Charismatic leaders matter some. So do good policies and good ads. But not that much. Because when it comes down it, people look around them, at what has happened to their lives, to their neighbour’s lives, to the lives of people they love. And if their lives are in trouble, they vote against the people in charge.

That’s why Lula could come back and beat Bolsonaro, and then Bolsonaro’s son could come back and beat Lula. It’s why Trump could be beaten and humiliated in 2020, and the Democrats all thought he was gone, and he won in 2024. Often when the far right come back a second time, they come back angrier and more cruel.

Partly this happens because when the economy isn’t working, people know it. You can tell us all you want that the economic indicators are looking good and inflation is down and the stock market is soaring. But when we go food shopping, pay the rent, read the heating bill, we know.

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